“I’m waiting for a pullback” is one of the most common things Andrew hears from investors, and this episode puts that instinct up against decades of data. He walks through research from Schwab, JP Morgan, Vanguard, Dimensional, and Citi, plus several case studies showing what actually happens to the person who sits in cash waiting for a better entry price.
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What You'll Learn in This Episode
The five decisions you have to get right for market timing to actually work
What the Schwab study found when comparing perfect timing, worst timing, and staying in cash
How long investors historically waited for a 5%, 10%, or 20% pullback
Why investing at all-time highs has produced competitive returns, not worse ones
What missing just the ten best days does to a twenty-year portfolio
Whether to invest a lump sum all at once or spread it out, according to Vanguard
The legitimate reasons to hold cash, and the reasons that quietly cost you
The price tag on waiting one, three, or five years before investing
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Resource/s
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Studies Mentioned
Schwab, Does Market Timing Work? https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work
Citi Wealth Investment Lab, via TheStreet https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/citis-data-could-change-how-you-invest-at-sp-500-highs
Dimensional, Why a Stock Peak Isn’t a Cliff https://my.dimensional.com/chmedia/339626/source/why-a-stock-peak-isnt-a-cliff.pdf
J.P. Morgan Guide to Retirement https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/retirement-insights/guide-to-retirement/
Vanguard, Cost Averaging https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/cost_averaging_invest_now_or_temporarily_hold_your_cash.pdf
Episode/s Mentioned
The 1-3-6 Method For Building & Managing Your Emergency Fund https://youtu.be/rGdII_Z0hnw
How to Never Worry About Money Again with Jesse Mecham https://youtu.be/_Zrin_NvjpY
Watch Next
Should You Cancel Whole Life Insurance? Investing After 50 & More https://youtu.be/pCU3H_xGR4Q
The American Dream Now Costs $5.3 Million https://youtu.be/_p2aFDeMKTs
What Happens if I Stop Investing for a Year? https://youtu.be/ihcTkAFwY00
18 SCARY Money Statistics in 2026! https://youtu.be/Jf8KjPwSTEA
Do You Think You'll ACTUALLY Be Able to Retire? https://youtu.be/oT_mCCD9MpI
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Question for you:
What percentage drop would it take before you actually hit buy? Name your number.
